Roswell, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

672
FXUS65 KABQ 050001 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
601 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

- There is high confidence in widespread moderate to major heat
  risk impacts, particularly Tuesday through Friday, which may
  cause health issues for individuals without adequate cooling and
  hydration. Some areas will approach record highs.

- There is a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms in far
  northeastern New Mexico later this afternoon into early evening,
  with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats.

- Gusty, even strong to severe, winds and dry lightning strikes
  across western New Mexico from isolated to widely scattered
  virga showers and dry thunderstorms from Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

SPC upgraded eastern portion of Union County to a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms with 1630 UTC update, so
have updated PoPs/Wx to ensure mention of this in official
forecast. Threat is rather conditional, with storm coverage
expected to be sparse. However, combination of remaining NW flow
aloft and replenished low-level moisture behind an overnight
backdoor frontal passage have produced an environment conducive
for supercells. Latest SPC mesoanalysis already indicates
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE in this area, beneath 0-6km bulk shear of
30-45 knots. CAM`s are roughly split on development of any storms
in our CWA. Main threats would be wind gusts of 60+ mph and large
hail up to two inches in size, though a tornado cannot be
completely ruled out.

Otherwise, the main story continues to be the building heat as
the monsoon enters a drier phase. Water-vapor satellite imagery
and RAP analysis show that the H5 high centroid has moved into
roughly the NM Bootheel region. By Tuesday afternoon, model
guidance drifts the centroid into west-central NM as it
strengthens to 598-599 dam. Blending MOS guidance with NBM yielded
little overall change to the temp forecast for Tuesday, with a
high temp of 105F forecast for Roswell and portions of the ABQ
Metro also hitting 100F. Combined with Heat Risk reaching the
Major category across a good chunk of these zones, have issued a
Heat Advisory from 12 Noon to 7PM on Tuesday. Tuesday night temps
settle 2-6F above normal, which translates to upper 50s-upper 60s
across much of NM, so there is some overnight relief.

Wetting rain chances are essentially nil across the CWA, but an
isolated dry storm in the Southwest Mountains/Gila NF can`t be
totally ruled out as dewpoints progged to hang in the low 30s F.
Confidence on low-medium on on this for Tuesday. Smoke aloft from
wildfires in CO/UT will also drift by from time-to-time, mainly
north of I-40. Skies most likely to appear hazy near the CO
border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Heat impacts peak in the Wed-Fri timeframe as the H5 high meanders
smack dab around the center of NM, with guidance still agreeing
that it will reach 600 dam in strength. Additional Heat Advisories
are likely in this timeframe, especially for the RGV and eastern
plains, though not seeing max temps approach Extreme Heat
Warning criteria at this time. Very isolated areas of Extreme
Heat Risk do appear Wed and Thu, though, so will have to keep
this mind as well as future products are evaluated.

The other thing to to watch will be the potential for "virga
bombs" and dry thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons,
mainly for areas west of I-25 and south of I-40, where downdraft
CAPE signals of up to 2000 J/kg are present. Precipitable water
values will be in the "sweet spot" of 0.4-0.8 inches as limited
moisture works around the western periphery of the high. If this
materializes, severe-level (60+ mph) gusts could occur. Wetting
rain footprints again likely to be very small/non-existant in
this region, though isolated storms in the northern mountains
could yield some light QPF amounts. Fortunately, burn-scar
flooding risk remains low to very low during this time.

Heading into Friday, a seasonally strong trough aloft passing the
northern tier of the CONUS starts to weaken/suppresses the upper-
level high, but not before another day or two of potentially
record-breaking heat. Notably, the NBM currently has a forecast
of 100F for the ABQ Sunport on Friday, which break the "reachable"
record of 98F for that date. By Sunday, enough moisture works
back in beneath as the high reforms closer to the Four Corners
area for a more typical, albeit "low-grade" monsoon, pattern with
steering more favorable for storms to move into valley locations
in the late afternoon and evening. This would also allow for back-
door cold fronts to progress into northeastern NM, but not seeing
any clear signals of this at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

We have low confidence in isolated thunderstorms developing over
the Clayton area early this evening, but if one develops it has a
good chance of turning severe with large hail and damaging winds.
Otherwise, a strong high pressure system will build over NM
tonight and Tuesday driving high temperatures around 3-11 degrees
above 30 year averages with some near record readings. Thus,
density altitude will be an important consideration for aviation
operations near complex terrain. On Tuesday afternoon, isolated
and virga showers are forecast near the AZ border. There may be
some dry thunderstorms in the mix over the southwest mountains.
Localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT will be
possible near better developed virga showers and dry
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are in place over northwestern
NM today, as relative humidly values have already plummeted into
the single digits. A few afternoon gusts of 20-25mph are forecast,
but sustained 20-ft winds not strong enough for Critical
conditions. Similarly, Elevated conditions are forecast for the
same areas on Tuesday, though single digit RH`s are not expected,
as dewpoints trend up into the 30s F. An isolated dry thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out for Tuesday in the Gila NF region as well.
Virga showers and isolated to widely scattered dry storms become
more prevalent over western NM on Wednesday and Thursday,
especially south of I-40. These will have at least some potential
for brief, erratic wind gusts up to 50mph, along with new fire
starts from dry lightning. Wetting rain footprints over the
southwest and northern mountains tick up a bit by the Fri-Sun
period, as an upper-level repositions itself near the Four
Corners.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  96  63  97 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  46  90  50  92 /   0   0   5   5
Cuba............................  56  90  59  91 /   0   5   5  10
Gallup..........................  52  93  56  94 /   0   5   5  10
El Morro........................  54  89  58  91 /   0   5  10  30
Grants..........................  54  93  58  93 /   0   5   5  30
Quemado.........................  57  91  59  92 /   0  20  10  30
Magdalena.......................  62  92  65  92 /   0   5   5  20
Datil...........................  56  90  59  90 /   0  10   5  30
Reserve.........................  54  95  57  97 /   0  20   5  30
Glenwood........................  60 100  63 101 /   0  10   5  30
Chama...........................  48  84  51  86 /   0   0   5  10
Los Alamos......................  60  90  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
Pecos...........................  56  90  59  90 /   0   0   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  54  87  57  88 /   0   0   0  10
Red River.......................  46  77  50  78 /   0   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  40  81  43  81 /   0   0   0  10
Taos............................  49  90  53  91 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  50  87  55  87 /   0   0   0  10
Espanola........................  56  97  60  96 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  60  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  56  94  61  94 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  96  71  97 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  63 101  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  99  68  99 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  60 100  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  61  99  66 100 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  60  99  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  63  99  68 100 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  61 100  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  63  94  67  95 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  63  99  67  99 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  65 101  68 101 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  61  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  54  92  58  93 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  93  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  56  89  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  57  91  60  92 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  58  92  60  92 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  65  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  60  87  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  55  89  57  90 /   5   0   0  10
Raton...........................  52  93  54  94 /   0   0   0  10
Springer........................  52  95  53  95 /   0   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  53  91  57  91 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  63  96  65  98 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  58  93  59  94 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  64 100  64 102 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  98  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  63  99  66 100 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  66 100  68 101 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  66 101  69 102 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66 101  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69 105  70 106 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  62  98  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  61  94  63  94 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ219-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...44